Speculating Alcatel's Q2,Q3 performance

In the last 5-6 years, the proposition of owning channels has undergone quite some change for large PBX vendors, at least in Europe. During this period, Alcatel's go-to-market shifted from being 100% direct to become 100% indirect. Still, its dependence on one channel (Nextiraone) can't be over emphasised.

As Nextiraone changed ownership recently, Alcatel's woes has begun. The channel is undergoing major restructuring that couldn't have come at a worse time for Alcatel. The vendor's merger with Lucent has exposed and sidelined their enterprise solution division. Adding to that is the poor uptake in France that lead the vendor settle for the number two position in shipments in 2005. And now, the restructuring of its primary channel.

I am told to understand that at the ground level, Alcatel is loosing base. Nextiraone's presence extends far and wide. Apart from France; Italy, Spain are affected. It will be interesting to Alcatel's Q2 and Q3 result. Knowing the great company that Alcatel is, I am sure they will take stock and react. And I believe their reaction might just become a good case study for the rest.